As the Election Turns #14: The State of the Race (with only one week left)

And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

The first thing I want to say is that I hope all my readers on the East Coast are safe and sound after Hurricane Sandy. And Obama is exactly right - this election will take care of itself one way or another. The president is not campaigning today or tomorrow as he focuses on helping people in need - like those in New Jersey, whose Republican governor, Chris Christie, has had only nice things to say about Obama and his administration's response during this crisis.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney - feeling neglected by the media - continued to campaign today in swing state Ohio with a rally disguised as a "Storm Relief Event" (click here and here to read all about it over on Daily Kos). This is the guy who called federal spending on disaster relief "immoral" during a primary debate and who, as governor of Massachusetts, vetoed funding for flood prevention in 2004. Hopefully we only have one more week to endure this pathetic excuse for a candidate.

Now let's move on to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/October 3): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (The Arkansas Poll/October 24): Obama 31, Romney 58
California (LA Times/USC/October 27): Obama 54, Romney 40
Colorado (PPP/October 25): Obama 51, Romney 47
Connecticut (Quinnipiac/October 24): Obama 55, Romney 41
Florida (PPP/October 28): Obama 49, Romney 48
Georgia (SurveyUSA/October 30): Obama 44, Romney 52
Hawaii (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG/October 4): Obama 62, Romney 30
Idaho (Mason-Dixon/October 14): Obama 27, Romney 63
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Rasmussen/October 16): Obama 41, Romney 54
Iowa (Gravis Marketing/October 26): Obama 50, Romney 46
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Magellan Strategies/October 8): Obama 36, Romney 59
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS/October 10): Obama 51, Romney 37
Maryland (Baltimore Sun/October 29): Obama 55, Romney 36
Massachusetts (Boston Globe/October 29): Obama 56, Romney 39
Michigan (Baydoun/Foster/October 24): Obama 47, Romney 47
Minnesota (St. Cloud State U./October 27): Obama 53, Romney 45
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon/October 27): Obama 41, Romney 54
Montana (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 45, Romney 53
Nebraska (Omaha World-Herald/October 28): Obama 40, Romney 54
Nevada (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 25): Obama 50, Romney 47
New Hampshire (PPP/October 28): Obama 49, Romney 47
New Jersey (Philadelphia Inquirer/October 27): Obama 51, Romney 41
New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal/October 29): Obama 50, Romney 41
New York (SurveyUSA/October 27): Obama 62, Romney 33
North Carolina (PPP/October 25): Obama 48, Romney 48
North Dakota (Mason-Dixon/October 30): Obama 40, Romney 54
Ohio (Time/October 24): Obama 49, Romney 44
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/October 26): Obama 33, Romney 59
Oregon (The Oregonian/October 30): Obama 47, Romney 41
Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer/October 27): Obama 49, Romney 43
Rhode Island (Brown University/October 10): Obama 58, Romney 32
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Middle Tn. State U./October 28): Obama 34, Romney 59
Texas (Texas Lyceum/October 3): Obama 39, Romney 58
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (Washington Post/October 28): Obama 51, Romney 47
Washington (Strategies 360/October 22): Obama 52, Romney 39
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (Rasmussen/October 26): Obama 49, Romney 49

The following 4 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 18 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 239 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington (12).

Romney wins 23 states (5+ points) with 191 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 9 states are too close to call with 108 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).

Now don't be too worried about Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin being too close to call as only one poll was conducted in each of these states in the last week. And Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing and Baydoun/Foster are all Republican-leaning pollsters. Hopefully we'll get some more polls this week in these important states with less biased results. As for North Carolina, many polls are now predicting this state as a tie, which is very good news for Obama. And I've finally given South Carolina to Romney since that state's last poll from way back in December - showing Obama with a 3-point lead - appears to have been a brief detour from reality. No one expects Obama to win the state, which voted for McCain in 2008. Also, in the above nine "swing" states, Obama currently has the lead in six of them, while the other three are said to be tied. So no need to panic - things are still looking quite good for Obama in the electoral college.

Next Monday (November 5) I will post the final polls and offer my own predictions for Election Night. Below you can watch President Obama joke about Donald Trump last week on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno and check out the amusing "Gay Bear State of the Union" performed by Rob Feinberg of MISTER (the gay dating app).