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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

As the Election Turns #13: Obama Sinks Romney's Battleship



And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

During last night's third and final Presidential debate, President Obama sunk Romney's battleship with a few memorable zingers and, more importantly, a comprehensive knowledge of foreign policy - something that the Republican candidate seems to sorely lack. In fact, Mitt seemed quite out of sorts as he passively sat there agreeing with almost everything Obama said. I guess his intent was to not stick his foot in his mouth during the debate. He did succeed in this - but he also appeared as if he was ready to vote for Obama himself. And I hope he does! Below you can watch the President's Battleship reference and his amusing "horses and bayonets" quip.



Now let's move on to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/October 3): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/September 25): Obama 35, Romney 56
California (Reason-Rupe/October 19): Obama 53, Romney 38
Colorado (PPP/October 18): Obama 50, Romney 47
Connecticut (SurveyUSA/October 23): Obama 53, Romney 40
Florida (SurveyUSA/October 20): Obama 47, Romney 46
Georgia (Atlanta Journal-Constitution/October 14): Obama 43, Romney 51
Hawaii (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG/October 4): Obama 62, Romney 30
Idaho (Mason-Dixon/October 14): Obama 27, Romney 63
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Rasmussen/October 16): Obama 41, Romney 54
Iowa (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 18): Obama 51, Romney 43
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Magellan Strategies/October 8): Obama 36, Romney 59
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS/October 10): Obama 51, Romney 37
Maryland (Washington Post/October 19): Obama 60, Romney 36
Massachusetts (Rasmussen/October 16): Obama 57, Romney 42
Michigan (EPIC-MRA/October 18): Obama 52, Romney 46
Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA/October 18): Obama 50, Romney 40
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/October 21): Obama 46, Romney 52
Montana (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 45, Romney 53
Nebraska (Omaha World-Herald/September 23): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (ARG/October 23): Obama 49, Romney 47
New Hampshire (PPP/October 19): Obama 48, Romney 49
New Jersey (SurveyUSA/October 20): Obama 54, Romney 40
New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal/October 14): Obama 49, Romney 39
New York (Quinnipiac/September 13): Obama 62, Romney 34
North Carolina (Rasmussen/October 18): Obama 46, Romney 52
North Dakota (Rasmussen/October 22): Obama 40, Romney 54
Ohio (CBS News/Quinnipiac/October 22): Obama 50, Romney 45
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (SurveyUSA/October 19): Obama 49, Romney 42
Pennsylvania (Morning Call/October 22): Obama 50, Romney 45
Rhode Island (Brown University/October 10): Obama 58, Romney 32
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (Texas Lyceum/October 3): Obama 39, Romney 58
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (Rasmussen/October 19): Obama 47, Romney 50
Washington (Strategies 360/October 22): Obama 52, Romney 39
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 18): Obama 51, Romney 45

The following 4 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 21 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 271 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Iowa (6), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).

Romney wins 23 states (5+ points) with 197 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 6 states are too close to call with 70 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29),  Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4),  South Carolina (9) and Virginia (13), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win. Significant changes from last week include Iowa and Wisconsin moving into Obama's column and North Carolina moving into Romney's.

As long as Obama continues to lead in all of the states he currently has, he will be reelected on November 6 - and then we can all forget about Mitt and his bad case of Romnesia.

Below you can watch Lesley Gore's groovy "You Don't Own Me" PSA encouraging women to vote for Obama.

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