As the Election Turns #12: Binders Full of Women NOT for Romney

And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

So last night's second Presidential debate was so much better than the first as Obama showed up with a fighting spirit and Romney stuck his foot in his mouth many times. Below you can watch my three favorite moments - Mitt receiving an instant fact-check about Obama's "acts of terror" speech from moderator Candy Crowley (who did an excellent job), Obama ending the debate by reminding everyone about Mitt's 47% speech, and Mitt's "binders full of women" remark, which already has its own Tumblr page. It turns out that Romney even lied about this, which doesn't surprise me (click here to read the true story).





Now let's move on to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/October 3): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/September 25): Obama 35, Romney 56
California (SurveyUSA/October 11): Obama 53, Romney 39
Colorado (Gravis Marketing/October 15): Obama 48, Romney 46
Connecticut (Siena/October 17): Obama 53, Romney 38
Florida (PPP/October 14): Obama 48, Romney 49
Georgia (Atlanta Journal-Constitution/October 14): Obama 43, Romney 51
Hawaii (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG/October 4): Obama 62, Romney 30
Idaho (Mason-Dixon/October 14): Obama 27, Romney 63
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Rasmussen/October 16): Obama 41, Romney 54
Iowa (WeAskAmerica/October 16): Obama 49, Romney 46
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Magellan Strategies/October 8): Obama 36, Romney 59
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS/October 10): Obama 51, Romney 37
Maryland (Baltimore Sun/October 2): Obama 57, Romney 34
Massachusetts (Rasmussen/October 16): Obama 57, Romney 42
Michigan (Rasmussen/October 12): Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (PPP/October 9): Obama 53, Romney 43
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/October 3): Obama 45, Romney 51
Montana (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 45, Romney 53
Nebraska (Omaha World-Herald/September 23): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 50, Romney 47
New Hampshire (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 50, Romney 49
New Jersey (Quinnipiac/October 16): Obama 51, Romney 43
New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal/October 14): Obama 49, Romney 39
New York (Quinnipiac/September 13): Obama 62, Romney 34
North Carolina (PPP/October 15): Obama 47, Romney 49
North Dakota (Mason-Dixon/October 9): Obama 40, Romney 54
Ohio (PPP/October 13): Obama 51, Romney 46
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (SurveyUSA/September 18): Obama 50, Romney 41
Pennsylvania (PPP/October 15): Obama 51, Romney 44
Rhode Island (Brown University/October 10): Obama 58, Romney 32
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (Texas Lyceum/October 3): Obama 39, Romney 58
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (ARG/October 15): Obama 47, Romney 48
Washington (Rasmussen/October 17): Obama 55, Romney 42
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (Marquette University/October 17): Obama 49, Romney 48

The following 4 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 19 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 255 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington (12).

Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 9 states are too close to call with 101 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win. The only significant change from last week is that New Hampshire has become too close to call (with Obama still leading by 1 point).

So although the race does remain close, Obama still has a much easier road to winning than Romney does - and it will be interesting to see if last night's debate makes a difference in the polls by next week.  I think all Democrats should be breathing a bit easier now due to Obama's great debate - and only one more to go this Monday, October 22 (thank God).

Below you can watch a new video, Obama Pride: LGBT Americans for Obama, starring Jane Lynch, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Billie Jean King, George Takei, Wanda Sykes, Zachary Quinto and Chaz Bono, who tell us why they're supporting President Obama and not Mitt Romney.