And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.
I love Joe Biden, and I think he is a terrific Vice President. And the smiling guy came out swinging against Paul Ryan in last night's debate, which should help ease the bizarre panic of many Democrats. Yes, President Obama should have called out Mitt Romney on his many lies in the first debate - but it was only one lousy debate, people! Let's take a deep breath and chill out. We still have over three weeks to go before this madness ends.
Unfortunately, the first debate did give Romney a bounce in the polls - BUT Obama is still ahead in the electoral votes, which is all that really matters. And one final comment on the Vice Presidential debate - moderator Martha Raddatz was absolutely fabulous! She did a great job.
Now let's move on to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):
Arizona (PPP/October 3): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/September 25): Obama 35, Romney 56
California (SurveyUSA/October 11): Obama 53, Romney 39
Colorado (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/October 11): Obama 47, Romney 48
Connecticut (Rasmussen/October 9): Obama 51, Romney 45
Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 11): Obama 48, Romney 47
Georgia (InsiderAdvantage/September 21): Obama 35, Romney 56
Hawaii (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG/October 4): Obama 62, Romney 30
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Howey/DePauw/September 27): Obama 40, Romney 52
Iowa (Rasmussen/October 8): Obama 49, Romney 47
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Magellan Strategies/October 8): Obama 36, Romney 59
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS/October 10): Obama 51, Romney 37
Maryland (Baltimore Sun/October 2): Obama 57, Romney 34
Massachusetts (PPP/October 11): Obama 55, Romney 41
Michigan (Rasmussen/October 12): Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (PPP/October 9): Obama 53, Romney 43
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/October 3): Obama 45, Romney 51
Montana (PPP/October 10): Obama 41, Romney 52
Nebraska (Omaha World-Herald/September 23): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (Suffolk/KSNV/October 11): Obama 47, Romney 45
New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH/October 9): Obama 50, Romney 44
New Jersey (Philadelphia Inquirer/October 11): Obama 51, Romney 40
New Mexico (Rasmussen/October 10): Obama 54, Romney 43
New York (Quinnipiac/September 13): Obama 62, Romney 34
North Carolina (Rasmussen/October 11): Obama 48, Romney 51
North Dakota (Mason-Dixon/October 9): Obama 40, Romney 54
Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 11): Obama 51, Romney 45
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (SurveyUSA/September 18): Obama 50, Romney 41
Pennsylvania (Philadelpia Inquirer/October 11): Obama 50, Romney 42
Rhode Island (Brown University/October 10): Obama 58, Romney 32
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (Texas Lyceum/October 3): Obama 39, Romney 58
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 11): Obama 47, Romney 48
Washington (SurveyUSA/October 3): Obama 56, Romney 36
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/October 11): Obama 50, Romney 47
The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.
So based on the above polls, Obama wins 20 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 259 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3) and Washington (12).
Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
And 8 states are too close to call with 97 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win. The only significant changes from last week are that Wisconsin has become too close to call (with Obama still leading by 3 points), while Romney is now leading in the swing states of Colorado (by 1 point), North Carolina (by 3 points) and Virginia (by 1 point).
So the race is closer than it was, but Obama's reelection chances are still looking pretty darn good in my opinion. And I'd much rather be in his shoes right now than Romney's. Hopefully Obama will be as feisty and spirited in this Tuesday's debate as he was at a Florida rally yesterday, which you can watch below.
2 comments:
"...over three weeks to go before this madness ends..." UGH!!
Let's hope that before the 2016 election cycle begins there are a few changes in the law that will eliminate all the "secret money"... it would be really nice if, for ONCE in way too many years, we had a CIVIL election without all the mud-slinging.
OK, I'll hop down off my soapbox now... Sorry, Marc. =(
No apology necessary, Lance! I greatly appreciate your political comment - and I agree with you about the "secret money". Unfortunately, I think our country is far too divided to ever have another civil non-mud-slinging election.
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