Thursday, October 4, 2012
As the Election Turns #10: Mitt Romney vs. Big Bird
And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.
So one of the few actual details that Mitt Romney offered us in the first Presidential debate last night is his "wonderful" plan to cut PBS funding in order to reduce the national deficit. Just get rid of Sesame Street and Downton Abbey - yeah, that will fix everything. Here is an amusing Tweet I read after the debate:
Big Bird @BlGBlRD: Yo Mitt Romney, Sesame Street is brought to you today by the letters F & U!
Apparently Romney won the debate by acting like a smarmy used car salesman desperate to make a sale by saying whatever he thought his audience wanted to hear - even if this totally contradicted his own previous statements. So basically he lied through his teeth - yet again. But I'm sure his combative words may have connected with some of these mysterious undecided voters - although from what I've read, there aren't that many of them in 2012.
President Obama, on the other hand, pretty much ignored Romney and just spoke directly to America. He definitely was not as interesting to watch, but at least I believe - and he believes - in what he is saying. I have no idea what Mr. Romney does or does not believe since he continues to flip-flop on almost every issue. I do hope that Obama confronts his opponent about his many falsehoods in the next debate on October 16, which will be in a town meeting format. And I don't expect Romney to get that big of a boost in the polls just from this one debate - but we shall see.
And one final note on the debate: please don't let Jim Lehrer moderate another one ever again. The man lost complete control as he allowed Romney to get the last word on almost every topic.
Now let's move on to more pleasant things like the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):
Arizona (PPP/October 3): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/September 25): Obama 35, Romney 56
California (PPIC/September 21): Obama 53, Romney 39
Colorado (WeAskAmerica/October 1): Obama 49, Romney 46
Connecticut (Quinnipiac/October 4): Obama 54, Romney 42
Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 3): Obama 47, Romney 46
Georgia (InsiderAdvantage/September 21): Obama 35, Romney 56
Hawaii (Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG/October 4): Obama 62, Romney 30
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Howey/DePauw/September 27): Obama 40, Romney 52
Iowa (Des Moines Register/September 30): Obama 49, Romney 45
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (Critical Insights/September 30): Obama 52, Romney 36
Maryland (Baltimore Sun/October 2): Obama 57, Romney 34
Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC/October 1): Obama 60, Romney 32
Michigan (WeAskAmerica/October 1): Obama 52, Romney 40
Minnesota (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon/September 24): Obama 48, Romney 40
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/October 3): Obama 45, Romney 51
Montana (Mason-Dixon/September 24): Obama 42, Romney 51
Nebraska (Omaha World-Herald/September 23): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (NBC/WSJ/Marist/September 27): Obama 49, Romney 47
New Hampshire (NBC/WSJ/Marist/September 27): Obama 51, Romney 44
New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton/October 3): Obama 56, Romney 39
New Mexico (Rasmussen/October 2): Obama 51, Romney 40
New York (Quinnipiac/September 13): Obama 62, Romney 34
North Carolina (PPP/October 1): Obama 48, Romney 48
North Dakota (Rasmussen/July 13): Obama 36, Romney 51
Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 3): Obama 51, Romney 43
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (SurveyUSA/September 18): Obama 50, Romney 41
Pennsylvania (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/September 26): Obama 54, Romney 42
Rhode Island (WPRI/Fleming/October 2): Obama 57, Romney 33
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (Texas Lyceum/October 3): Obama 39, Romney 58
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist/October 3): Obama 48, Romney 46
Washington (SurveyUSA/October 3): Obama 56, Romney 36
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (Marquette University/October 3): Obama 53, Romney 42
The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.
So based on the above polls, Obama wins 21 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 269 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).
Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
And 7 states are too close to call with 87 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9) and Virginia (13), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win. There are some significant changes from two weeks ago as Florida and Virginia became too close to call, while Missouri moved into Romney's column and New Hampshire moved into Obama's. So the President is still looking very good - and Democrats definitely shouldn't let one debate freak them out. Let's see how Joe Biden and Paul Ryan do next Thursday (October 11) - and I predict that Joe will not be as subdued as Obama.
Before I sign off, let me offer my belated congratulations to the President and the First Lady on their 20th anniversary yesterday - as well as to Michelle Obama on her victory over Ann Romney in the 2012 Family Circle Presidential Cookie Bake-Off. And below you can enjoy the Obamas' recent visit with the "sharp-tongued" ladies of The View (as Romney described them in his 47% video).