As the Election Turns #9: Late Show with Barack Obama

And now another episode of the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

Well, I wasn't planning on posting another As the Election Turns until after the first Presidential debate on October 3, but a lot has happened since the Democratic National Convention ended almost two weeks ago: the tragic consulate killings in Libya - and Mitt Romney's disgusting attempt to use them to attack the Obama administration during such a difficult time (he really should be ashamed of himself) - and then the recent September surprise video of Romney disparaging 47 percent of the American people whom he obviously doesn't give a shit about. The man and his struggling campaign are trying their damndest to make me long for the "good old days" of McCain and Palin - something I never thought would ever be possible. Hopefully - God willing - we only have 48 more days to put up with their total incompetence.

Now let's move on to far more pleasant things like President Obama's appearance on David Letterman last night, which gave the talk show its highest ratings since February 2010. You can watch the entire interview below.



And here are the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/September 11): Obama 44, Romney 53
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/March 26): Obama 33, Romney 57
California (Field/September 19): Obama 58, Romney 34
Colorado (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/September 19): Obama 48, Romney 47
Connecticut (PPP/August 29): Obama 53, Romney 40
Florida (NBC/WSJ/Marist/September 13): Obama 49, Romney 44
Georgia (SurveyUSA/July 30): Obama 42, Romney 50
Hawaii (PPP/October 16): Obama 59, Romney 32
Illinois (The Simon Poll/SIU/September 15): Obama 47, Romney 34
Indiana (Rasmussen/August 5): Obama 35, Romney 51
Iowa (PPP/August 28): Obama 47, Romney 45
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA/September 17): Obama 39, Romney 53
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (PPP/September 19): Obama 55, Romney 39
Maryland (PPP/May 24): Obama 58, Romney 35
Massachusetts (PPP/September 18): Obama 57, Romney 39
Michigan (MRG/September 18): Obama 48, Romney 42
Minnesota (PPP/September 13): Obama 51, Romney 44
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (Rasmussen/September 13): Obama 45, Romney 48
Montana (PPP/September 12): Obama 45, Romney 50
Nebraska (Rasmussen/May 18): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (PPP/August 29): Obama 50, Romney 47
New Hampshire (ARG/September 18): Obama 48, Romney 47
New Jersey (Philadelphia Inquirer/September 15): Obama 51, Romney 37
New Mexico (PPP/September 12): Obama 53, Romney 42
New York (Quinnipiac/September 13): Obama 62, Romney 34
North Carolina (PPP/September 10): Obama 49, Romney 48
North Dakota (Rasmussen/July 13): Obama 36, Romney 51
Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist/September 13): Obama 50, Romney 43
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (SurveyUSA/September 18): Obama 50, Romney 41
Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer/September 15): Obama 50, Romney 39
Rhode Island (PPP/February 22): Obama 54, Romney 37
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (WPA/September 12): Obama 40, Romney 55
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (NBC/WSJ/Marist/September 13): Obama 49, Romney 44
Washington (Elway Poll/September 14): Obama 53, Romney 36
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/September 19): Obama 51, Romney 45

The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 22 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 307 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (29), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).

Romney wins 21 states (5+ points) with 172 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 7 states are too close to call with 59 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15) and South Carolina (9), which makes President Obama today's big winner as 270 votes are needed to win. There are some significant changes from two weeks ago as Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin have all moved into Obama's column, while both New Hampshire and Missouri have become too close to call. So it does appear that our President received a pretty nice bump from his convention.

Now it's on to the first debate two weeks from tonight in Denver, Colorado, which should be very interesting. Here's hoping that Mr. Romney opens his mouth wide during it to insert both his feet.