As the Election Turns #8: Four More Years!

And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

So the 2012 Democratic National Convention is now history, and their final night featured some memorable speeches. Of course, President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden were inspiring as always. I also enjoyed hearing Senator John Kerry, who revealed himself to be a surprisingly effective stand-up comedian while going after Mitt Romney, and Zach Wahls, the son of a lesbian couple, who spoke on behalf of gay marriage equality. However, the most moving moment of the evening belonged to the amazing Gabby Giffords, who recited the Pledge of Allegiance. And, finally, I'm just thankful that no one spoke to an empty chair - or any other piece of furniture.







Now let's move on to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/August 1): Obama 41, Romney 52
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/March 26): Obama 33, Romney 57
California (Field/July 6): Obama 55, Romney 37
Colorado (PPP/September 3): Obama 49, Romney 46
Connecticut (PPP/August 29): Obama 53, Romney 40
Florida (PPP/September 3): Obama 48, Romney 47
Georgia (SurveyUSA/July 30): Obama 42, Romney 50
Hawaii (PPP/October 16): Obama 59, Romney 32
Illinois (Chicago Tribune/February 6): Obama 56, Romney 35
Indiana (Rasmussen/August 5): Obama 35, Romney 51
Iowa (PPP/August 28): Obama 47, Romney 45
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (PPP/August 28, 2011): Obama 40, Romney 48
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (Critical Insights/July 11): Obama 49, Romney 35
Maryland (PPP/May 24): Obama 58, Romney 35
Massachusetts (PPP/August 22): Obama 55, Romney 39
Michigan (PPP/September 4): Obama 51, Romney 44
Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA/July 23): Obama 46, Romney 40
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/August 30): Obama 41, Romney 53
Montana (Rasmussen/August 22): Obama 38, Romney 55
Nebraska (Rasmussen/May 18): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (PPP/August 29): Obama 50, Romney 47
New Hampshire (PPP/August 14): Obama 51, Romney 45
New Jersey (Quinnipiac/September 6): Obama 51, Romney 44
New Mexico (Rasmussen/August 22): Obama 52, Romney 38
New York (Siena/August 21): Obama 62, Romney 33
North Carolina (PPP/September 3): Obama 48, Romney 48
North Dakota (Rasmussen/July 13): Obama 36, Romney 51
Ohio (Gravis Marketing/September 4): Obama 44, Romney 47
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (PPP/June 26): Obama 50, Romney 42
Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer/August 25): Obama 51, Romney 42
Rhode Island (PPP/February 22): Obama 54, Romney 37
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (PPP/April 24): Obama 43, Romney 50
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (PPP/August 21): Obama 50, Romney 45
Washington (SurveyUSA/August 4): Obama 54, Romney 37
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 23): Obama 49, Romney 47

The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 20 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 254 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29),  Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13) and Washington (12).

Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 8 states are too close to call with 102 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), South Carolina (9) and Wisconsin (10), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win.  The only significant changes from a week ago is that Michigan moved back into Obama's column and Ohio became too close to call. However, Gravis Marketing appears to be GOP-affiliated (the firm's head has a history of contributions to Republican candidates), so don't be too worried about their latest Ohio poll. It will be interesting to see how much of a bump in the polls Obama receives from the convention.

So now it's on to the debates next month:

October 3 in Denver, Colorado
October 11 in Danville, Kentucky (Vice Presidential)
October 16 in Hempstead, New York (town meeting format)
October 22 in Boca Raton, Florida

I, of course, will be tuning in, and I plan to post my next As the Election Turns on October 4 - unless Romney's tax returns are finally released on September 28 by the anonymous group who claims to have stolen them. We shall have to wait and see if this is just a silly hoax - but wouldn't it be nice to learn what Romney is hiding from us?