As the Election Turns #5: Clint Eastwood's Love of Chair

And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.

So the big news today isn't about Mr. Romney's night in the spotlight at the Republican National Convention. Sorry, Mitt, but you're thunder got stolen by a bizarre and somewhat sad speech by actor Clint Eastwood, who spoke to an empty chair that represented President Obama (I still prefer the Love of Chair sketch from the 1970s TV series, The Electric Company). Romney's campaign spent the entire week building up their mystery guest speaker - and it turns out to be Mr. Eastwood, who then publicly embarrasses himself in his attempt to channel comedian Bob Newhart. But at least he was interesting to watch - unlike the rest of the convention, in which everyone - especially Paul Ryan - bashed Obama with "misleading statements" and "falsehoods" and oh, let's just call them what they really are: a bunch of BIG FAT LIES! But the Romney folks are being honest about one thing now - that they have no plans to tell the truth during the next 66 days. "We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers" is what one Romney pollster said earlier this week. If lying to the American people is their only way to reclaiming the White House, that is the road they are taking. I'm not surprised by this pathetic plan of attack, which I'm sure will be loudly condemned this coming week in Charlotte, North Carolina.




Before we move on, I must give a shout-out to the Obama campaign for posting the above amusing pic on their Facebook page today. Now let's get to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (PPP/August 1): Obama 41, Romney 52
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/March 26): Obama 33, Romney 57
California (Field/July 6): Obama 55, Romney 37
Colorado (Keating/August 24): Obama 48, Romney 44
Connecticut (PPP/August 29): Obama 53, Romney 40
Florida (CNN/Time/August 27): Obama 50, Romney 46
Georgia (SurveyUSA/July 30): Obama 42, Romney 50
Hawaii (PPP/October 16): Obama 59, Romney 32
Illinois (Chicago Tribune/February 6): Obama 56, Romney 35
Indiana (Rasmussen/August 5): Obama 35, Romney 51
Iowa (PPP/August 28): Obama 47, Romney 45
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (PPP/August 28, 2011): Obama 40, Romney 48
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (Critical Insights/July 11): Obama 49, Romney 35
Maryland (PPP/May 24): Obama 58, Romney 35
Massachusetts (PPP/August 22): Obama 55, Romney 39
Michigan (EPIC-MRA/August 30): Obama 49, Romney 46
Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA/July 23): Obama 46, Romney 40
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (PPP/August 30): Obama 41, Romney 53
Montana (Rasmussen/August 22): Obama 38, Romney 55
Nebraska (Rasmussen/May 18): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (PPP/August 29): Obama 50, Romney 47
New Hampshire (PPP/August 14): Obama 51, Romney 45
New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton/August 29): Obama 51, Romney 37
New Mexico (Rasmussen/August 22): Obama 52, Romney 38
New York (Siena/August 21): Obama 62, Romney 33
North Carolina (High Point/SurveyUSA/August 28): Obama 43, Romney 43
North Dakota (Rasmussen/July 13): Obama 36, Romney 51
Ohio (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 23): Obama 50, Romney 44
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/August 20): Obama 29, Romney 58
Oregon (PPP/June 26): Obama 50, Romney 42
Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer/August 25): Obama 51, Romney 42
Rhode Island (PPP/February 22): Obama 54, Romney 37
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (PPP/April 24): Obama 43, Romney 50
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/August 22): Obama 62, Romney 25
Virginia (PPP/August 21): Obama 50, Romney 45
Washington (SurveyUSA/August 4): Obama 54, Romney 37
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 23): Obama 49, Romney 47

The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 20 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 256 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13) and Washington (12).

Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

And 8 states are too close to call with 100 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9) and Wisconsin (10), which makes President Obama today's winner as 270 votes are needed to win in November. However, Obama was winning 21 states back on August 11, including Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, which are now too close to call (he still has a narrow lead in all three). But in the last few weeks he has gained enough ground in New Hampshire and Virginia to put them in his column. So although the race is getting a bit tighter in a few states, it still looks pretty good for Obama come November.

So now it's on to Charlotte, where I predict the Democrats will put on a far better show. But will they have a mystery guest speaker? Maybe Betty White will show up to talk about Medicare - or the cast of Ann Romney's favorite TV series, Modern Family, will voice their support for gay marriage. Actually the only Hollywood celebrity I've heard about so far is Desperate Housewives' Eva Longoria, who is a national co-chair of Obama's campaign. Hopefully she will be speaking to Latino and female voters and not an empty chair.