Saturday, August 11, 2012
As the Election Turns #4: Romney & Ryan - America's Comeback (to failed policies) Team
And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year.
So the big news today is Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as the next President of the United States - oops, wait a minute, he meant to say Vice President. "Every now and then I make a mistake" was the big goof's excuse for screwing up the most important announcement of his campaign and Ryan's career. This amusing gaffe probably made every Republican in that gathered crowd think to themselves, "Oh yeah, we still have the rich, old, boring, foot-in-mouth flop at the top of the ticket." Hmmm, sounds kind of familiar, doesn't it? A little bit like four years ago when every right-winger was gaga over Sarah Palin - but less than enthused about her running mate. And the 42-year-old U.S. Representative from Wisconsin is a young, handsome and extreme conservative. However, having listened to his rather bland acceptance speech, I found him to be lacking that charismatic spark that Palin initially had (before everyone got to know her). He seems likable enough - unlike Romney - but he's no Alaskan spitfire (although he does enjoy hunting, which now seems to be a prerequisite for any Republican Vice Presidential candidate).
It will be interesting to see if "America's Comeback Team" - as Romney and Ryan are calling themselves - is embraced by the poor, the middle class, independent voters, women, senior citizens, African-Americans, Latinos and the LGBT community over the next 87 days. I wouldn't bet money on it with any of those groups. And Obama's new campaign video below clearly points out that Mr. Ryan's extreme GOP budget plan will only have us "coming back" to the failed policies that crashed our economy in the first place. Also, Romney has already stated that Ryan's budget - which he once called "marvelous" - is not the one that he will be adopting. Then why did he choose this guy as his running mate? It doesn't make much sense to me since he will now be linked to Ryan's plan whether he likes it or not.
Now let's get to the most recent General Election polls:
Reuters/Ipsos (August 8): Obama 49, Romney 42
FOX News (August 9): Obama 49, Romney 40
CNN/Opinion Research (August 9): Obama 52, Romney 45
Gallup (August 10): Obama 46, Romney 46
Rasmussen (August 11): Obama 44, Romney 46
IBD/CSM/TIPP (August 11): Obama 46, Romney 39
The four polls above featuring Obama with a 7+ advantage over Romney might be one of the reasons Ryan's selection was suddenly unveiled on a Saturday morning at 9 am (EST) during the Olympics. Mr. Romney obviously has been having a bad summer (remember that embarrassing overseas trip?) as he continues to hide his tax returns, and I doubt this thorn in his side will disappear anytime soon - unless, of course, he finally reveals everything to the inquiring minds of the American people. But this bold move would probably open up a whole new can of drama that ol' Mitt doesn't want us to know about.
However, it's the electoral college numbers that will determine the outcome of this election, so let's proceed to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):
Arizona (PPP/August 1): Obama 41, Romney 52
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/March 26): Obama 33, Romney 57
California (Field/July 6): Obama 55, Romney 37
Colorado (Rasmussen/August 7): Obama 47, Romney 47
Connecticut (PPP/August 1): Obama 51, Romney 43
Florida (PPP/July 31): Obama 48, Romney 47
Georgia (SurveyUSA/July 30): Obama 42, Romney 50
Hawaii (PPP/October 16): Obama 59, Romney 32
Illinois (Chicago Tribune/February 6): Obama 56, Romney 35
Indiana (Rasmussen/August 5): Obama 35, Romney 51
Iowa (Rasmussen/August 10): Obama 44, Romney 46
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (PPP/August 28): Obama 40, Romney 48
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (Critical Insights/July 11): Obama 49, Romney 35
Maryland (PPP/May 24): Obama 58, Romney 35
Massachusetts (PPP/June 27): Obama 55, Romney 39
Michigan (EPIC-MRA/August 1): Obama 48, Romney 42
Minnesota (KSTP/SurveyUSA/July 23): Obama 46, Romney 40
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (Rasmussen/July 31): Obama 44, Romney 50
Montana (Rasmussen/June 20): Obama 42, Romney 51
Nebraska (Rasmussen/May 18): Obama 39, Romney 53
Nevada (Rasmussen/July 26): Obama 50, Romney 45
New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH/July 17): Obama 49, Romney 45
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson/August 2): Obama 49, Romney 36
New Mexico (PPP/July 18): Obama 49, Romney 44
New York (Quinnipiac/July 25): Obama 55, Romney 32
North Carolina (PPP/August 7): Obama 49, Romney 46
North Dakota (Rasmussen/July 13): Obama 36, Romney 51
Ohio (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 1): Obama 50, Romney 44
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/May 7-10): Obama 27, Romney 62
Oregon (PPP/June 26): Obama 50, Romney 42
Pennsylvania (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 1): Obama 53, Romney 42
Rhode Island (PPP/February 22): Obama 54, Romney 37
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Tennessee/Vanderbilt/May 20): Obama 40, Romney 47
Texas (PPP/April 24): Obama 43, Romney 50
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/May 22): Obama 59, Romney 28
Virginia (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 8): Obama 49, Romney 45
Washington (SurveyUSA/August 4): Obama 54, Romney 37
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac/August 8): Obama 51, Romney 45
The following 5 states and 1 district have had no polls conducted in the last year, but since we can safely assume which way they will vote this fall, I am awarding Delaware and District of Columbia to Obama and Alabama, Alaska, Idaho and Wyoming to Romney.
So based on the above polls, Obama wins 21 states and 1 district (5+ points) with 271 electoral votes: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).
Romney wins 22 states (5+ points) with 182 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
And 7 states are too close to call with 85 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9) and Virginia (13), which makes President Obama today's winner. Since 270 votes are needed to win in November, the election is looking pretty good for Obama at the moment. Let's hope it stays that way.
So until the next episode of As the Election Turns (which I plan to post during or just after the Republican National Convention in Tampa on August 27-30), I will leave you with two videos - President Obama's recent rally in Denver, Colorado, featuring Sandra Fluke's eloquent introduction, and an LGBT for Obama video featuring author/student/activist Zach Wahls.