As the Election Turns #3: A Great Day for President Obama and America

And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America during a presidential election year. Before we get to the most recent polls, let's review what has been happening lately:

Today in a surprising but fabulous decision, the Supreme Court - including George W. Bush appointee John Roberts - upheld the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare), causing Republicans to go into apoplectic fits. "Hooray!" is what I say as I breathe a sigh of overwhelming relief. Because we all know that Romney and his gang would be jumping for joy right now if Obamacare had been defeated, which would have been a major slam against the President and his administration. If only it was October 28 today - but, unfortunately, we still have four more months until Election Day. This is the calm before the storm, which I predict will begin its full-force assault around convention time. So my next As the Election Turns post will be during the following dates - or whenever Mitt chooses his running mate:

Republican National Convention: August 27-30 in Tampa, Florida
Democratic National Convention: September 3-6 in Charlotte, North Carolina

Also, according to an article in yesterday's Miami Herald, Hispanic enthusiasm for Obama is on the rise following his announcement earlier this month that certain illegal immigrants will be allowed to stay and work in the United States - and this is very good news.

And, finally, one other important thing - go vote for Michelle Obama's White and Dark Chocolate Chip Cookies in Family Circle magazine's Presidential Cookie Bake-Off. I know it's silly, but I really don't want Ann Romney to win - and Michelle's recipe does sound more delicious. Click here to vote.

Now let's proceed to the most recent state polls (the ones in pink are brand new since my last election post):

Arizona (Rasmussen/June 27): Obama 41, Romney 54
Arkansas (Talk Business Poll/March 26): Obama 33, Romney 57
California (Field/June 1): Obama 48, Romney 32
Colorado (PPP/June 19): Obama 49, Romney 42
Connecticut (Quinnipiac/June 6): Obama 50, Romney 38
Florida (Quinnipiac/June 27): Obama 45, Romney 41
Georgia (InsiderAdvantage/May 24): Obama 40, Romney 52
Hawaii (PPP/October 16): Obama 59, Romney 32
Illinois (Chicago Tribune/February 6): Obama 56, Romney 35
Indiana (Howey/DePauw/April 6): Obama 40, Romney 49
Iowa (Rasmussen/June 12): Obama 46, Romney 47
Kansas (SurveyUSA/November 21): Obama 39, Romney 48
Kentucky (PPP/August 28): Obama 40, Romney 48
Louisiana (Clarus Research/October 7): Obama 37, Romney 53
Maine (WBUR/MassINC/June 18): Obama 48, Romney 34
Maryland (PPP/May 24): Obama 58, Romney 35
Massachusetts (PPP/June 27): Obama 55, Romney 39
Michigan (Rasmussen/June 15): Obama 50, Romney 42
Minnesota (PPP/June 7): Obama 54, Romney 39
Mississippi (PPP/November 6): Obama 36, Romney 54
Missouri (Rasmussen/June 8): Obama 42, Romney 49
Montana (Rasmussen/June 20): Obama 42, Romney 51
Nebraska (PPP/March 25): Obama 39, Romney 51
Nevada (PPP/June 13): Obama 48, Romney 42
New Hampshire (Rasmussen/June 21): Obama 48, Romney 43
New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton/June 14): Obama 56, Romney 33
New Mexico (PPP/April 25): Obama 54, Romney 40
New York (Siena/June 12): Obama 59, Romney 35
North Carolina (NBC News/Marist/June 28): Obama 46, Romney 44
North Dakota (Mason-Dixon/June 11): Obama 39, Romney 52
Ohio (Quinnipiac/June 27): Obama 47, Romney 38
Oklahoma (Sooner Poll/May 7-10): Obama 27, Romney 62
Oregon (PPP/June 26): Obama 50, Romney 42
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac/June 27): Obama 45, Romney 39
Rhode Island (PPP/February 22): Obama 54, Romney 37
South Carolina (NBC News/Marist/December 6): Obama 45, Romney 42
South Dakota (PPP/January 30): Obama 40, Romney 46
Tennessee (Middle Tn. State U./February 25): Obama 41, Romney 47
Texas (PPP/April 24): Obama 43, Romney 50
Utah (Deseret News/KSL/June 25): Obama 26, Romney 68
Vermont (Castleton State College/May 22): Obama 59, Romney 28
Virginia (Virginian-Pilot/ODU/June 24): Obama 49, Romney 42
Washington (PPP/June 20): Obama 54, Romney 41
West Virginia (PPP/October 2): Obama 33, Romney 54
Wisconsin (Marquette University/June 20): Obama 49, Romney 43

The following 5 states and 1 district (with 25 electoral votes) have had no polls conducted in the last year. We can probably guess which way most of them will vote this fall, but for now I will hold off on awarding them to either candidate: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Idaho (4) and Wyoming (3).

So based on the above polls, Obama wins 23 states (5+ points) with 291 electoral votes: California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhoda Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) and Wisconsin (10).

Romney wins 18 states (5+ points) with 163 electoral votes: Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6) and West Virginia (5).

And 4 states are too close to call with 59 electoral votes: Florida (29), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15) and South Carolina (9), which makes President Obama today's winner. Since 270 votes are needed to win in November, it looks like Obama will be re-elected. However, a lot can change in four months, but at the moment things are looking pretty good.

So until the next episode of As the Election Turns, I will leave you with three recent videos - President Obama's new Keeping His Word: Equality for LGBT Americans video, a documentary about LGBT rights in America narrated by Glee's Jane Lynch, and The View ladies quizzing Obama about pop culture during his visit to the show last month.